Partner leads the
I will hope for partner to have a heart honor. I win the club jack,
queen, and king. If declarer has the hand I hope (
Bidding 3NT or doubling when it's right swings 9 IMPs (we would get +200 most of the time).
Bidding when it's very wrong costs at least 10 IMPs from -500 or so.
For game to make our way we need partner to have rather more than half the missing points, when we gain 10. If he has less than half the deck our expected loss averages at least that.
It's clear to pass at favorable, clearer to bid at unfav/love all I think.
I bid 3NT, and had real play for the contract (vs. a 5-count!) but in the end had to go down two.
In the bar after the game, I brought this up as a problem, and the group thought bidding 3NT was ridiculous, even laughable. They thought my reasoning here was absurd, ridiculously over-compensating for the situation. Oddly, one of those people was Marshall, who bid 3NT this time around.
Another of the players who thought 3NT was ridiculous often serves on appeals committees around here. A lesson to AC members: if you have a very strong opinion about a situation, consider that your opinion might not be shared by the rest of the world, so don't be too emphatic about it. It's a rare case where there are no logical alternatives. To appeals coordinators: 3-person ACs are not acceptable. To appellants: it's possible to get 5 people who see a situation strongly and wrongly. Live with such judgments and don't complain; this simply can happen some of the time with no one's doing anything particularly wrong. This doesn't mean the AC was biased or stupid; they just misjudged the bridge situation. Players misjudge bridge situations all the time.